Before November:
Some Practical Advice Ahead of the 2020 General Election
Why
If you would like to avoid a repeat of the 2016 general
election this November, you’ve come to the right place. Me too.
I don’t want to beat this to death, but it’s worth putting
down a few markers right up front.
I’m a history guy, and I’ve been taking a deep dive in early
to mid-20th century stuff lately. In that context, a few things are
sort of obvious to me regarding our current president and his party.
Donald Trump is a criminal and a fascist, and so are most of
his family members. Trump is trying to consolidate power and eliminate
resistance right now, and he has been abetted in this by his political party. The
Republican Party has completely surrendered to him. Their leaders are now also mostly fascists. If Trump wins a second term, the country and
the world you grew up in will be unrecognizable. Expect violence. Expect
economic and environmental devastation. Expect repression.
If you think that’s overreaction, bear in mind we have camps
filled with children separated from their parents on the Mexican border right
now. Bear in mind that congressional subpoenas related to possible collusion
with the Russian government have been ignored (YOU try ignoring a subpoena).
Bear in mind that he has called the press the “enemy of the people”, a phrase
he stole directly from 20th century fascist propaganda. Bear in mind
that he has rejected all scientific consensus on climate change and
epidemiology, all diplomatic expertise on international relations, and all
intelligence analysis of the intentions and capabilities of our enemies and
friends in the world. Bear in mind his open and usually personal and vicious
criticism of federal judges, state governors, and any legislators (including
Republican legislators) who disagree with him. Bear in mind his replacement of
all agency heads, advisors, and watchdogs with toadies, lickspittles, and his
own family members. Bear in mind his refusal to disavow white supremacists and
totalitarian dictators and their open support for him. Bear in mind recent
public utterances that included reliable old chestnuts like “the only good
democrat is a dead democrat” and “when the looting starts, the shooting
starts”, and God knows how many similar dog whistles (and regular old quite
audible whistles) in the last four years.
It strikes me that someone who is interested in designating
a purported anti-fascist group a terrorist organization is most likely a
fascist, no? He doesn’t even try to hide
this stuff. Per Maya Angelou “When
someone tells you who they are, believe them!”
The millions of victims of fascism buried in the European
landscape would point out that you underestimate the depths to which this
person could sink at your own peril. The
danger is quite real. Action is
required, and so is courage. If you are frightened by the fascists that just
means your brains are working right. I was raised by a generation of people who
fought and won a bloody and prolonged war with fascists, and they were scared
shitless too. But they swallowed hard and overcame to save their kids and their
country. Many of them contributed in small ways, some of them gave their lives,
but they all worked together and kept their eyes on the prize. You are the same
as those people. Mark Twain said “Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of
fear--not absence of fear.”
I should add here that much of what you need to do before
November won’t really put you in physical harm’s way. I have lived most of my
life in rural places surrounded by white folks with guns. Indeed, I am myself a
white guy with guns. I was taught to use, care for and respect firearms by a
doting grandfather, and if I ever did anything remotely dangerous with them, I
was swiftly corrected. The loudmouthed goons you see marching around state
capitols brandishing loaded weapons are almost entirely shameless cowards with
compensation issues, and they will slink away with their tails between their
legs if the shit gets real. The armed people you really need to fear are the
quiet ones like Timothy McVeigh, and as any person of color can tell you,
racist cops.
Leading up to this strange, plague-addled spring, the three
leading candidates that emerged for the next presidency were all old white guys
(Trump, Bernie, and Biden). Speaking as an old white guy, in my opinion, the
last thing we need at this point is another old white guy, but here we
are.
Joe Biden was not my guy.
I never liked what he helped do to Anita Hill. I find him prone to gaffs
and dumb off-the-cuff remarks, and on the policy level, I find him overly cautious.
That said, the kinds of agency heads, judges and justices, diplomats, budget
priorities, policy decisions, and executive orders that he would generate would
be very different from anything coming from the fascists. Further, he knows how
to actually make the sausage and get legislation passed. That’s potentially very valuable. LBJ used
similar skills to pass the Civil Rights Act. Yesterday, while Twitler raged
incoherently in front of a church after gassing a bunch of protestors so he
could get to his sanctified photo op, Joe Biden went to a church in Delaware,
sat in a folding chair, shut up, and listened to the grievances of leaders from
the community. He took notes.
So this is a very easy choice for me. You make up your own
mind.
How
Like the 2016 election, the general election in November
will be decided by turnout. Period. This is actually very good news. Numbers are numbers. These numbers are
current as of this writing.
Trump’s approval rating among registered Republicans is in
the low 90’s by percent. Registered Republicans number about 45.9 million and are 30%
of the electorate. Trump’s approval
rating among registered Democrats is single digit to about 10%. Registered
Democrats number about 47.4 million and are 31% of the electorate. Trump’s
approval rating among registered Independents is about 40%. Registered Independents
number 55.1 million and are 36% of the electorate. While registration will likely change some by
November, the approval ratings of these three blocks have hardly changed since
the 2016 election. Given equal turnout among these blocks, Trump is beaten
badly. Given greater turnout among Democrats and Independents than Republicans,
combined with higher registration of new Democratic or Independent voters vs
Republicans, the stage is set for a landslide of historic proportions that should
have long enough coattails to flip the US Senate.
Now these are publicly available numbers, and lots of
Republican strategists know how to read and count. They also know that the
voting system in this country is decentralized and largely effective. If it was
not, the 2018 landslide would not have happened. They are, quite sensibly,
concerned and lots of them are terrified and angry. Their strategy, which is also
not a secret, is to depress turnout among Democrats and Independents, and
energize their own base. The attempted voter suppression will take every possible
form, and money is no object. They will be in court fighting any measure that
increases turnout. They will spread disinformation, lies and discord on social
media with foreign assistance (something I would argue is treasonous), and via
Faux news, which is for the most part a fascist news outlet. They will use all
organs of the state, including the Justice and Defense Departments and the
Postal Service, to attack and harass their opposition. They will “monitor”
certain voting districts and polling places to intimidate voters. All these
measures and more will focus on the battleground states that will decide the
electoral college, since Trump has zero chance of winning a popular vote (see
numbers). Pennsylvania, where I live, is a battleground state.
It's also worth saying that in the event of his defeat, I
simply can’t imagine Trump not contesting the election. He is desperate. He
knows that the appointment of anything like a normal Attorney General will mean
a complete exposure of what he’s been getting up to for years, and that his
goose will be cooked. Even a landslide might still require massive public
mobilization on the order of the Women’s March, and a near shutdown of the
country to make him go. One bit of good news here is he’s been so abusive to
the law enforcement and intelligence branches of government (the FBI, CIA,
Secret Service, etc.) that I assume he doesn’t have a lot of friends there.
So the task ahead is straightforward. Energize and educate
the progressive and moderate voter base.
Register new progressive and moderate voters. Get those folks to the
polls in November.
Everything else is bullshit and distraction. Ignore it.
Resources:
Tools: Small Ways to do Big Things
More good news: to help overcome fascism in this country,
you don’t have to dedicate your entire life, fortune, family and waking hours
to the cause. What follows is a list of suggested actions that you can take
that will make a difference and will also make you feel empowered and
positive. Most of these are small tasks.
If that doesn’t seem like a winning strategy, remember that
you are not alone (see numbers cited above). A single yellowjacket is a
nuisance, thousands of them is another matter entirely.
Money
Political campaigns in this and other countries use money
for a variety of purposes ranging from travel budgets for candidates to
advertising to polling and strategizing to direct voter contacts. One of the
biggest issues we must address in this country is campaign financing which is
now rife with out-and-out bribery by the well-to-do and corporations thanks to
our bought and paid for Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision. Since we won’t be doing anything about it
until 2021 (Trump’s not a big fan of reform), we’ll have to play the game under
the current rules. Fortunately, that’s quite doable.
Under current rules there are limits to individual
contributions to individual campaigns. Thus the money war is fought via
Political Action Committees (PAC’s) where much larger sums can change
hands. While most Republican political
money typically comes in immense chunks from rich people and corporations, Barack
Obama, Bernie Sanders, and other progressive political figures built enormous
war chests five bucks at a time. The
most effective PAC on the Democratic side is Actblue, although there are many
others. Actblue has been around since
2004, and they’ve got it down to a science at this point.
One of the things I’ve personally done since 2016 is earmark
monthly small political contributions to candidates I believe in, starting
after the primary elections. I will make these contributions, usually through
Actblue, right up to the general election. Thanks to gerrymandering (another
issue we need to fix starting in 2021), I live in a state legislative district
where a democrat has almost no mathematical chance to win, but I contribute to
those races anyway. I do that and other volunteer things for these lost causes
because it forces the other party to spend at least a little money on a race
that they would otherwise not spend on. That’s money they have to divert from
competitive seats in places like the Pittsburgh and Philly suburbs. In boxing
terms it’s a body shot. It will not knock out the opponent, but it will
inexorably weaken them.
If you have even five buck a month you can donate to
progressive candidates that share your views on things, you can help keep those
campaigns alive and vital. Even the
smallest contribution helps, and it will also make you feel more empowered and
positive.
Resources:
Outreach and Canvassing
If you write or speak well, this is an extraordinary
opportunity to make a difference. Decades of political research indicate that
what actually gets people to the polls isn’t yard signs and bumper stickers and
ads. It’s direct outreach via canvassing. The corona virus has probably limited
the actual door-to-door variety, but texts, phone calls and the humble post
card are still available. If you’ve never done this before (I hadn’t before
2018), it’s easier than it sounds. You work with lists of registered voters (Democrats
and Independents) and briefly talk with folks, ask them about their concerns
and preferences, listen politely, ask them if you can do anything to help them
get to the polls, and move on. I knocked on 50 or 60 doors in 2018, got yelled
at twice, and was otherwise warmly received.
Resources:
Targeting key races and key constituencies
I think you should always invest time and money in your
local races, but beyond them you should do some research and identify other competitive
races that will make a difference. For example, neither Pennsylvania senator is
up for election this year. But 23 Republican senate seats are up for election
in 2020, compared to only 12 Democratic seats. That’s worth paying attention
to. It’s also worth noting that certain constituencies lean progressive, others
conservative. When more women, young folks, people of color, and college educated
folks vote, that tends to be good for progressive candidates. If you are planning to communicate with and
canvass voters, those are the voters to look for. Your time and money are
limited, so do your research and be strategic.
Resources:
Resist bullshit
Russian and fascist trolls on social media and propagandists
like the Murdochs and Breitbart produce endless streams of bullshit and lies
following Steve Bannon and Putin’s strategies of “flooding the zone” with crap
and hoping some of it sticks. Reacting to each lie is probably a waste of your
time. A more effective way to use social media and news is posting only from
reliable sources with actual published journalism standards and policies (AP,
Reuters, CBS, NBC, ABC, NPR/PBS, NYT, WaPO, CNN, LA Times, BBC, CS Monitor
etc.). Beyond that, if you see say,
three or more of these sources agreeing on the details of a particular incident
or policy, it’s probably accurate. Pay
attention to the dates of articles as well. If someone is pushing out a story
from a reliable source that’s several years old, they probably have an agenda. Don’t
accept FB friend requests from folks you don’t know and/or don’t have mutual
friends: they’re probably trolls. Learn the difference between opinion pieces
and reporting. They’re two different things. Opinions are fine, especially
opinions informed by actual data, but someone telling you there’s no reason to
wear a mask in public places during a pandemic or that vaccines cause autism
isn’t expressing an opinion…it’s lying. Don’t lie and don’t spread lies. Be
judicious, do your research, and shed light, not heat.
Resources:
Voter Registration
The process of getting registered to vote is different in
each state. To help get new folks registered, you have to learn and master the
legal process in your state. In Pennsylvania you can do it on-line, and many
states have motor-voter laws that register folks when they get their drivers licenses.
In some states it’s more onerous. You have to learn the rules for your state well
enough to answer questions from prospective new voters.
Many organizations sponsor voter drives. Perhaps the best
way to be helpful is to volunteer for a shift or two at a registration table. Here you can engage with prospective voters,
answer their questions, and try to be helpful. The epidemic may limit or
curtail these drives, and some of them may become virtual events, so stay abreast
of developments and react and volunteer accordingly.
Some constituencies are much more likely to vote
progressively than others. Voter registration efforts that target young people,
people of color, women, naturalized citizens, and poor citizens are likely to
yield the most progressive voters. The
arguments that sway folks in these communities have to be targeted to their own
concerns and problems. Educate yourself, listen more and talk less, and you’ll
know what to say.
Resources:
Turnout
It goes without saying that you should vote on Election Day.
The virus may have us voting mostly by mail, but I expect the fascists to fight
this, so it may require going to the polling place during an epidemic and
exposing yourself to the virus. If it does, I will crawl there over broken
glass if I have to. You should too. In the month or so before Election Day, you
should distribute factual information on how and where to vote via every source
available to you.
Some organizations sponsor assistance to voters that need to
get to the polls. You can volunteer to help with these efforts by manning a
phone or by driving folks to and from their polling place.
There’s a critical need for poll workers and election judges
right now thanks to the virus. If you’re young and in good health, you should
consider stepping up and volunteering to help folks vote on Election Day.
If you observe voter intimidation of any kind at the polls,
you should document it on video and in photos and in writing and call the
police and the ACLU. It’s against the law in every state to intimidate voters. You
should share what evidence you gather far and wide.
If, as I suspect, Trump tries to invalidate the election, we
need to organize on a massive scale, rally to our newly elected government, and
make his attempt to steal another election untenable. Let’s hope we don’t have
to, but if we do only courage will carry the day.
Resources:
One last thing…The real hard work of repairing our country
will begin after the 2020 election. Much of that will mean pushing newly
elected people to long overdue reforms of many kinds. Some of it will require
engaging with and listening to people you don’t agree with. Some of it will
require an insistence on justice and truth, no matter how painful that is.
My point is, the goal of voting out the fascists in 2020 isn’t
the end of your work as an engaged and patriotic citizen, it’s the beginning.
