What's Goin On?

I’m uncertain about the wisdom of joining the mob of talking heads this morning following the latest abominable nightmare involving a crazy person and firearms, but wisdom is not necessarily my strong suite.  I should also preface this by noting that I am a hunter, and own a number of firearms.

I tend to view things through an historical lens, and look at precedent and data to evaluate likely futures. It’s what archaeologists and historians do and are supposed to do.

This happens regularly here in the US.  Have a look at this summary and map http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/07/mass-shootings-map to get a sense of what’s been happening here since the early 1980’s.  There’s more information than a person could possible absorb in this resource from the Shorenstein Center http://journalistsresource.org/studies/government/criminal-justice/mass-murder-shooting-sprees-and-rampage-violence-research-roundup   There’s a lot of collected data here, but I’d like to focus on a couple pieces of information. First, these mass murders are largely the work of young to middle aged men with mental illnesses of various kinds. Second, 75% of the firearms they used were obtained legally, and the overwhelming majority of the weapons involved were semiautomatic handguns and semiautomatic assault rifles. These data suggest that a rational public response here is to enact laws and regulations that provide for better mental health care and limit access to the most commonly employed weapons. That is the cold, analytical, and simple perspective on the problem, and absent contradictory data, it’s unassailable. There is nothing to argue about. Period.

But of course it ain’t that simple is it?

Currently, one of the most pervasive political ideologies in this country holds that government is by nature repressive, restrictive, intrusive, expensive and, yes, evil. In the same view the private sector is enabling, vigorous, expansive, and entirely good. 

Again, an unemotional and purely analytical perspective would suggest that the public and private sectors are just two different parts of our economy and society. Each is good at some things, not so good at others. Each has a role to play in our society, and each interacts with the other in various, constantly evolving, and mostly complicated ways.  

I bring this up, because my posited “rational public response” would involve spending government money (i.e. tax money) and passing and enforcing restrictive laws. It therefore runs smack up against a popular, if largely mythological, political ideology. It just won’t fly in 21^st century America.

So what is likely to happen? 

There will be a week or two of hand wringing and cries for gun control and better mental health care as we bury 20 children and 6 teachers in Connecticut. Then a number of political leaders, mostly taking campaign money from the NRA or afraid of NRA money going to their political opponents, will say we should proceed with caution and respect and defend the 2^nd amendment in our deliberations. The deficit will be used to regrettably note that we simply can’t expand provisions for mental health care at this time.  The TV pundits will chime in with much more strident shouting about government intrusiveness and big spending.  In a couple-three months, it will die down, and all will be as peaceful as the small new graves waiting for spring in the foothills of the Berkshires. Sometime in 2013, some crazy person will do something horrible again somewhere else and the cycle will repeat itself. 

I write this as the shortest day of the year approaches in the northern hemisphere, and the many festivals that celebrate the return of the sun begin. All these celebrations focus on humanity’s hope for a better year and a better world, and I think I will too.  If there are reasons and conditions that push us toward repeating our mistakes, there are others that push back. If you take the long view, the archaeologists and historians view, a shift in our society toward rationality and enlightenment is evident. 2012 America is a better place than 1950 America, which was a better place than 1930 America, and so on. We do, in fact, learn from our past, if slowly and haltingly. It’s one of the things that make us human.  Maybe sometime this century or next, our descendants will look back at how we care for the insane and how we regulate the distribution of firearms and wonder how the hell we could be so ignorant and cruel. My God, I hope so…

I wish you all happiness and peace at the Holidays and the turning of the year!